Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 1.248957 1.416565 1.593989 1.795348 2.017068 2.253300 2.523557
2025-01-26 1.029388 1.261030 1.521373 1.833946 2.197235 2.604330 3.093101
2025-02-02 0.854527 1.127539 1.452352 1.863230 2.364734 2.952406 3.688200
2025-02-09 0.703030 0.999609 1.372949 1.869715 2.504839 3.280639 4.289850
2025-02-16 0.582231 0.892245 1.304878 1.881413 2.651574 3.629269 4.946297
2025-02-23 0.465277 0.771410 1.203089 1.836792 2.720932 3.886203 5.509302
2025-03-02 0.361066 0.650677 1.084378 1.753903 2.729411 4.063207 5.981993
2025-03-09 0.296931 0.579240 1.026473 1.749395 2.844449 4.390980 6.679133
2025-03-16 0.239601 0.507728 0.957757 1.719612 2.918725 4.666311 7.322442
2025-03-23 0.207460 0.473643 0.943879 1.772542 3.120162 5.136833 8.271300
2025-03-30 0.164327 0.409688 0.869692 1.718176 3.149422 5.354648 8.866886
2025-04-06 0.134557 0.365166 0.822524 1.702559 3.237276 5.664713 9.615630
2025-04-13 0.107215 0.320067 0.769219 1.673812 3.308082 5.964882 10.387396
2025-04-20 0.091770 0.298014 0.757236 1.718611 3.507440 6.482030 11.525231
2025-04-27 0.077796 0.275636 0.740863 1.753138 3.692057 6.987886 12.675399
2025-05-04 0.064455 0.250711 0.714540 1.764716 3.836282 7.436164 13.758689
2025-05-11 0.053606 0.229118 0.691690 1.780211 3.988658 7.907349 14.904393
2025-05-18 0.041952 0.200334 0.645890 1.740958 4.033150 8.194726 15.760280
2025-05-25 0.031182 0.169223 0.587068 1.664242 3.996297 8.335056 16.374159
2025-06-01 0.025216 0.152679 0.562789 1.661992 4.107045 8.745225 17.468796
2025-06-08 0.019680 0.134681 0.530139 1.635058 4.163878 9.059013 18.409630
2025-06-15 0.017063 0.128237 0.529979 1.687180 4.390839 9.700922 19.956782
2025-06-22 0.012784 0.110655 0.491063 1.636003 4.390680 9.912845 20.744630